Maciek Anielski poses the question on everybody’s mind – Brexit: Can Boris Johnson Pull Through?
- Boris Johnson tries last ditch effort to push through no deal.
- General Election looking more likely as Boris Johnson’s Brexit Deal falls flat.
- Economists predict economy better off under Labour Brexit.
If we can’t cheat the Benn Act, there will be an election soon
Boris Johnson Aide1
On the 9th September, the Benn Act was passed by parliament to ensure that the PM seek parliamentary approval for no deal.
The act states that without approval, the PM must seek an extension of Article 50 until the 31st January 20202.
According to anonymous sources, Boris Johnson and his allies are attempting to coerce EU countries into voting against any possible extension, effectively bypassing the bill and, in turn, parliament.
We will make clear privately and publicly that countries which oppose delay will go to the front of the queue for future co-operation
Leaked Note3
This tactic is intended to push through a No Deal Brexit, despite this being illegal under UK law.
If it fails, the likely outcome is a General Election. A result which will leave the current PM fighting a war on two fronts.
On the one hand, campaigning for a no deal solution will allow Labour to snap up more centre-leaning voters while any deviation from this path will find hard line brexiteers turning to Nigel Farage for answers.
This is a situation which is becoming harder and harder for Boris Johnson to avoid as he finds himself spending less time negotiating and more time promoting his increased spending on the NHS4.
This itself may cause problems for the Prime Minister.
Despite promises of extra spending and tax cuts, Boris Johnson will find himself hard-pressed to deliver, according to senior economists.
Findings by the Institute of Fiscal Studies state that public sector borrowing is set to rise to over £100bn a year by 2021-225 , a level previously branded as ‘Magic Money Tree’ economics by Conservatives in reference to the 2017 Labour manifesto.
An even more worrying finding for Boris Johnson is brought to attention by Citi economist Christian Schulz:
In 2022, which is the end point for [our forecast] . . . the economy under a Labour government would be almost 5% bigger than under a Conservative government
Christian Schulz, Citi
This is a difficult pill to swallow for a conservative party which has for so long campaigned on its strong economic record.
In an upcoming election, Boris Johnson is instead likely to focus on his recent monetary stimulus into the NHS, while lambasting the EU and Parliament for opposing his Brexit vision at every turn.
The question is, can he pull through?
