Writing this in October means we are in the final stretch of the U.S. election with
under one month to go until voting day on the 5th of November. Over on this side of the pond we recognise this date as Bonfire Night, and it can be said that the Presidential election race so far has had its fair share of fireworks.
The two candidates going head-to-head are the Republican Party’s nominee Donald Trump and the Democratic Party’s nominee Kamala Harris. Trump has been an infamous figure in politics in the last decade with his prior presidency spanning 2017-2021 where he faced domestic issues such as the outbreak of the Covid-19. Trump has been a divisive figure in Western politics since his transition from businessman to politician. Trump left office with a poor approval rating amongst the U.S. public with only 29% of U.S. adults approving of Trump’s performance in office according to telephone survey data from the Pew Research Center. Despite his loss to Biden in the last election, Trump has managed to maintain an extremely strong support from Republican voters and looked to be safely heading back into office before President Biden stood down from running. Current Vice President Kamala Harris is Trump’s opponent. Harris has had a more conventional path into the political sphere, her career began as an attorney before ascending the ranks and being elected district attorney for San Franciso in 2003, and in 2010 being elected attorney general of California, with a singular re-election for this role in 2014. In 2016, Harris was elected to the United States Senate and entered the White House as Vice President in 2021. The Biden administration, in which Harris was Vice President, faced issues of immigration, economic downturn and foreign conflict.
Heated is the best term to describe the presidential debate last month. The economy was a fiery topic with Trump arguing that the increase in inflation was due to the Biden-Harris administration, saying, “We have inflation like very few people have ever seen before, probably the worst in our nation’s history.” The economy is a key policy issue of this election that Trump claims will be further ruined by a future Harris administration. Harris has had a hard time shaking her predecessor Biden’s poor record. In the debate Trump suggested Harris was no different to Biden. Harris responded, “Clearly, I am not Joe Biden, and I am certainly not Donald Trump, and what I do offer is a new generation of leadership for our country.” After the debate, a snap CNN poll showed that 63% of the U.S. public believed Harris won the debate. There is a general perception that foreign policy does not win elections. However, this may be a crucial policy issue in this race. North Carolina is an essential battleground for both candidates and foreign policy could be a deciding factor in which way this state swings. Fort Liberty is the largest U.S. military base and is located within North Carolina, maintaining a workforce of just under 60,000 military personnel. It is likely that many military personnel and their families are deeply worried about the United States becoming directly involved in conflict in both the Middle East and Ukraine. Trump has maintained the notion that the world was a safer place when he was President. However, Kamala Harris has been endorsed by military personnel along her campaign trail, including Retired General Larry Ellis. The policy each candidate takes on foreign conflict will affect how this electoral group vote, and therefore could affect which way key swing state North Carolina vote.
The campaign trail has taken on a fresh look in the last weeks and months as both Harris and Trump have appeared on popular podcasts. Harris appeared on the Call Her Daddy podcast hosted by Alex Cooper, released on the 6th of October. A large portion of the interview was concerned with Harris’ stance on women’s rights and abortion. Harris reiterated her belief that the Government should not tell women what to do with their bodies. On the other side, Trump appeared on This Past Weekend With Theo Von, hitting the charts earlier this year on the 20th of August. Furthermore, Trump appeared on Flagrant podcast hosted by Andrew Schulz, posted on the 9th of October. With Cooper’s podcasts being popular with young women, and Von’s podcast and Schulz’s podcast being popular with young men, we can see how both candidates are trying to secure votes in younger voting groups. It is clear from these appearances that the new era of media has infiltrated into the political minds, both campaigns have seen these podcasts as crucial in targeting the younger generation.
It is important to look at what effect this U.S. election will have on the United Kingdom. It is no secret that Labour would prefer a Harris victory. Labour frontbencher and Foreign Secretery David Lammy has, in 2018, described Trump as “a woman hating, neo-Nazi sociopath,” in the Times Magazine. However, Starmer is showing that the ‘special relationship’ needs to rise above political differences, he met with Trump in New York at the end of September. Starmer did not meet with Kamala Harris due to scheduling issues. What occurs in the United States is of profound interest to the UK Government as the United States is considered one of the most important allies of the United Kingdom, with the events in the United States often impacting the economy and the security of the United Kingdom. Thus, it will be intriguing to see how the newly elected Prime Minister responds to the outcome of November 5th.
The most recent national poll of data collected by FiveThirtyEight has Harris 2.5 points up nationally over Trump as of the 12th of October, however the point difference is even closer in key swing states such as Michigan, North Carolina and Nevada. This election will be on a knife-edge in the coming weeks as we draw closer to voting day. Harris and Trump are each striving for the keys to the White House, a hotly anticipated race coming down the final stretch. A battle which will be won in the margins of key swing states.
